Speculation

ABC Fora podcasts make me think. So here’s a thought, pure and total speculation.  No matter what one thinks of him or his policies, one has to admit that John Howard is a smart/clever/sly politician (or at least has advisors with those traits). Either he or the advisors had a very good idea about what was happening economically, and could have made some fairly accurate predictions about future events, up to a point. They will have likely seen some financial upheaval hitting the world, and would therefore have suspected a bumpy ride ahead. 

What if the Liberals threw the election?  What if they decided that they didn’t want any part of this bumpy patch - they’d let Labo(u)r take the blame and fumble around a bit. Then, a few years later (when things in the rest of the world will have sorted themselves out), swoop back into power and take the credit for “saving” Australia from the “shaky fiscal policies” of the Labo(u)r party.

If this is the case, it’s really good strategic thinking. They’re trying to cement long-term leadership of the country. If they yield control during times when things won’t go very smoothly anyway, they’ll be able to point at those bumpy times as being the “fault” of Labo(u)r’s poor management. When in fact, the governing party has very little to do with the cause of the bumps - they would have happened anyway, no matter which party was in charge.  I’m no politician (and I’m certainly not an economist), but this seems fairly plausible.