Technology advancement theory

In these times of apparent accelerated rate of change, the speed of commoditisation is incredible. It takes about 3-5 years for a technology (or technology benchmark, like processing power) to progress from being expensive to being affordable, and another 3-5 years to progress from being affordable to being cheap. Think about the past. Think of the computer you were using about 5 years ago. Was it state of the art? Of course it was. That kind of power is now affordable, and 5 years it will be \*cheap\*. 

Right now, there are millions of people walking around the wealthy cities with little tiny touch-screen-enabled computers in their pockets. Five years ago, that would have been inconceivable. In 5 years, there will be millions more. Not everyone will get the latest and greatest, but they’ll be out there. When planning for the future, if technology has anything to do with it, keep this rule in mind. Things are changing so quickly.